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Stuart Macgregor v Robert Downer (Mon 11 Feb 2019)

Match won by Robert Downer. Result: 9-11,12-10,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,473, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 19,291, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Robert Downer won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Downer played 28% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Downer actually played at a level of 20,779 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 16,222. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Downer changes to +6.8% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Downer becomes +2.1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -2.3%.

Given Robert Downer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Robert Downer is +1.1% and for Stuart Macgregor is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Downer: 90%, Stuart Macgregor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Downer: 83%, Stuart Macgregor: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,230, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 19,483, level confidence: 83%.