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Oliver Pett v Richie Fallows (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 10-12,7-11,11-9,4-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 19,688, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 26,698, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Oliver Pett.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 28% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 25,564 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 25,914 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Pett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to 0% and Oliver Pett changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes 0% and for Oliver Pett becomes +0.5%.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Richie Fallows is 0% and for Oliver Pett is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 87%, Oliver Pett: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 85%, Oliver Pett: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 19,713, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 26,658, level confidence: 85%.