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Peter Marshall v Billy Hawes (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Peter Marshall. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 15,255, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Billy Hawes: 5,382, level confidence: 67%.
Peter Marshall to win as he is currently playing 183% better than Billy Hawes.

Peter Marshall won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Marshall played 230% better than Billy Hawes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Marshall actually played at a level of 16,460 and Billy Hawes at a level of 4,988. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Marshall changes to +4.6% and Billy Hawes changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Marshall becomes +1.7% and for Billy Hawes becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell British National Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Marshall: 69%, Billy Hawes: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Marshall: 64%, Billy Hawes: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 15,495, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Billy Hawes: 5,278, level confidence: 76%.