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Liam Eason v James Peach (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 9-11,5-11,7-11.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 10,077, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for James Peach: 15,250, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Liam Eason.

James Peach won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 56% better than Liam Eason in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 15,505 and Liam Eason at a level of 9,911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +1.2% and Liam Eason changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +0.5% and for Liam Eason becomes -0.7%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for James Peach is +0.3% and for Liam Eason is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 84%, Liam Eason: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 83%, Liam Eason: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 10,019, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for James Peach: 15,274, level confidence: 83%.