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Peter Marshall v Phil Nightingale (Sun 17 Feb 2019)

Match won by Peter Marshall. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 16,705, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Phil Nightingale: 12,569, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Peter Marshall to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Phil Nightingale.

Peter Marshall won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Marshall played 154% better than Phil Nightingale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Marshall actually played at a level of 23,087 and Phil Nightingale at a level of 9,095. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Marshall changes to +32% and Phil Nightingale changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Marshall becomes +7.2% and for Phil Nightingale becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell British National Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Phil Nightingale is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Marshall: 83%, Phil Nightingale: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Marshall: 60%, Phil Nightingale: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 17,824, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale: 12,151, level confidence: 64%.