Harry Falconer v Sam Todd (Wed 13 Feb 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,482, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sam Todd:
18,166, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Sam Todd.
Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
23% better than Sam Todd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
20,828 and Sam Todd at a level of
16,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +5.1% and Sam Todd changes to -6.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +1.7% and for Sam Todd becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 96%, Sam Todd: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 89%, Sam Todd: 78%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,823, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Sam Todd:
17,788, level confidence: 78%.