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James Willstrop v Harry Falconer (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 42,772, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,823, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Harry Falconer.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 450% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 68,288 and Harry Falconer at a level of 12,416. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +38% and Harry Falconer changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +6.8% and for Harry Falconer becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Willstrop is limited to +5.2% and Harry Falconer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 83%, Harry Falconer: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 52%, Harry Falconer: 59%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 44,981, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,259, level confidence: 59%.