Tom Richards v Patrick Rooney (Thu 14 Feb 2019)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 7-11,6-11,11-2,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
36,596, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,124, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Patrick Rooney.
Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
16% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.
As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 33,012, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 35,553 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Rooney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 5.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -4% and Patrick Rooney changes to +4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.4% and for Patrick Rooney becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 81%, Patrick Rooney: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 75%, Patrick Rooney: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Richards:
36,089, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
27,637, level confidence: 78%.