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Peter Creed v Zac Alexander (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 12-10,11-1,9-11,9-11,11-4.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,230, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zac Alexander: 29,599, level confidence: 32%.
Zac Alexander to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Peter Creed.

Peter Creed won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 18% better than Zac Alexander in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 31,352 and Zac Alexander at a level of 26,652. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +4.7% and Zac Alexander changes to -10.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +1.5% and for Zac Alexander becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 86%, Zac Alexander: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 77%, Zac Alexander: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 28,649, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Zac Alexander: 28,883, level confidence: 51%.