Shehab Essam v Peter Creed (Sat 16 Feb 2019)
Match won by Shehab Essam. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-9.
Starting level for
Shehab Essam:
29,853, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
28,649, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Shehab Essam to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Peter Creed.
Shehab Essam won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shehab Essam played
74% better than Peter Creed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shehab Essam actually played at a level of
38,542 and Peter Creed at a level of
22,191. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shehab Essam changes to +28% and Peter Creed changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shehab Essam becomes +5.8% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shehab Essam: 80%, Peter Creed: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shehab Essam: 62%, Peter Creed: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shehab Essam:
31,360, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
27,476, level confidence: 68%.