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Jack Turney v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 18 Feb 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 4-11,11-5,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Jack Turney: 13,994, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,343, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Jack Turney.

Stuart Macgregor won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 36% better than Jack Turney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 18,168 and Jack Turney at a level of 13,359. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +3.7% and Jack Turney changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +1.5% and for Jack Turney becomes -1.7%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jack Turney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +0.8% and for Jack Turney is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 88%, Jack Turney: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 84%, Jack Turney: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Turney: 13,835, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,460, level confidence: 84%.