Harry Falconer v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 20 Feb 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 7-11,11-13,11-7,11-5,9-11.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,144, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,595, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
6% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
18,938 and Harry Falconer at a level of
17,786. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +5.8% and Harry Falconer changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +1.9% and for Harry Falconer becomes -2.2%.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.
Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +1.1% and for Harry Falconer is -1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 93%, Harry Falconer: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 86%, Harry Falconer: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
18,963, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,827, level confidence: 86%.