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Oliver Pett v Adam Dominey (Thu 21 Feb 2019)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 19,566, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Adam Dominey: 5,658, level confidence: 69%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 246% better than Adam Dominey.

Oliver Pett won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 106% better than Adam Dominey in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oliver Pett was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,986 and 19,566 without affecting his level.

In this case, Oliver Pett played at level 12,711 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Oliver Pett would normally have been playing at level 13,846 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Dominey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to 0% and Adam Dominey changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes 0% and for Adam Dominey becomes +1.7%.

Given Adam Dominey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is 0% and for Adam Dominey is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 68%, Adam Dominey: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 52%, Adam Dominey: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 19,537, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Adam Dominey: 5,721, level confidence: 64%.