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Lyell Fuller v Emilio Carrillo (Thu 21 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 22,233, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Emilio Carrillo: 7,279, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 205% better than Emilio Carrillo.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 230% better than Emilio Carrillo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 23,110 and Emilio Carrillo at a level of 7,003. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +2.2% and Emilio Carrillo changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +0.9% and for Emilio Carrillo becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mount Royal University Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 77%, Emilio Carrillo: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 74%, Emilio Carrillo: 82%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 22,444, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Emilio Carrillo: 7,210, level confidence: 82%.