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Lyell Fuller v Allan Nuñez (Fri 22 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-2,10-12,11-6,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 22,339, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allan Nuñez: 10,758, level confidence: 62%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Allan Nuñez.

Lyell Fuller won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 21% better than Allan Nuñez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,759 and 22,339 without affecting his level.

As Lyell Fuller has played below his allowed range at 14,754, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 19,349 (based on typical behaviour), Allan Nuñez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to -7.7% and Allan Nuñez changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes -2.2% and for Allan Nuñez becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mount Royal University Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 86%, Allan Nuñez: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 66%, Allan Nuñez: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 21,847, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Allan Nuñez: 11,212, level confidence: 60%.