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Tristan Eysele v Lyell Fuller (Sat 23 Feb 2019)

Match won by Tristan Eysele. Result: 7-11,11-8,4-11,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Tristan Eysele: 17,410, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 21,884, level confidence: 65%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Tristan Eysele.

Tristan Eysele won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tristan Eysele played 8% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tristan Eysele actually played at a level of 20,293 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 18,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tristan Eysele changes to +15% and Lyell Fuller changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tristan Eysele becomes +3.8% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mount Royal University Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tristan Eysele: 72%, Lyell Fuller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tristan Eysele: 61%, Lyell Fuller: 69%.

Final level for Tristan Eysele: 18,068, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 21,257, level confidence: 69%.