Tristan Eysele v Lyell Fuller (Sat 23 Feb 2019)
Match won by Tristan Eysele. Result: 7-11,11-8,4-11,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Tristan Eysele:
17,410, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
21,884, level confidence: 65%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Tristan Eysele.
Tristan Eysele won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tristan Eysele played
8% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tristan Eysele actually played at a level of
20,293 and Lyell Fuller at a level of
18,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tristan Eysele changes to +15% and Lyell Fuller changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tristan Eysele becomes +3.8% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mount Royal University Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tristan Eysele: 72%, Lyell Fuller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tristan Eysele: 61%, Lyell Fuller: 69%.
Final level for Tristan Eysele:
18,068, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
21,257, level confidence: 69%.