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Chris Hall v Simon Herbert (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,982, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Simon Herbert: 14,022, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Simon Herbert.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 106% better than Simon Herbert in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 24,633 and Simon Herbert at a level of 11,943. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +14% and Simon Herbert changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +3.5% and for Simon Herbert becomes -3.4%.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Simon Herbert's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +1.9% and for Simon Herbert is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 80%, Simon Herbert: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 68%, Simon Herbert: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hall: 21,343, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Simon Herbert: 13,732, level confidence: 73%.