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Vinicius Rodrigues v Oliver Pett (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 6-11,10-12,7-11.

Starting level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 16,402, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Pett: 19,506, level confidence: 51%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Vinicius Rodrigues.

Oliver Pett won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 50% better than Vinicius Rodrigues in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of 21,921 and Vinicius Rodrigues at a level of 14,595. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +11% and Vinicius Rodrigues changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +3% and for Vinicius Rodrigues becomes -2.2%.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given Vinicius Rodrigues's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is +1.6% and for Vinicius Rodrigues is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 71%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 64%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 16,176, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Oliver Pett: 19,797, level confidence: 64%.