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Glyn Saunders v Harry Falconer (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 9-11,9-11,7-11.

Starting level for Glyn Saunders: 6,182, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,586, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 201% better than Glyn Saunders.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 40% better than Glyn Saunders in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Falconer was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,881 and 18,586 without affecting his level.

As Harry Falconer has played below his allowed range at 9,234, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 14,036 (based on typical behaviour), Glyn Saunders played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to -4% and Glyn Saunders changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -1.5% and for Glyn Saunders becomes +4.8%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Glyn Saunders's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is -0.8% and for Glyn Saunders is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 88%, Glyn Saunders: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 60%, Glyn Saunders: 60%.

Final level for Glyn Saunders: 6,395, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,431, level confidence: 60%.