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Oliver Griffiths v Peter Creed (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 4-11,1-11,4-11.

Starting level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,627, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,739, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 500% better than Oliver Griffiths.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 267% better than Oliver Griffiths in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,572 and 27,739 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 16,966 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Oliver Griffiths is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 86%, Oliver Griffiths: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 67%, Oliver Griffiths: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,620, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,697, level confidence: 67%.