Harry Falconer v Martin Ross (Wed 13 Feb 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,507, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Martin Ross:
10,739, level confidence: 68%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
82% better than Martin Ross.
Harry Falconer won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
83% better than Martin Ross in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
19,597 and Martin Ross at a level of
10,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to 0% and Martin Ross changes to -0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +0.1% and for Martin Ross becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 92%, Martin Ross: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 91%, Martin Ross: 82%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,531, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Martin Ross:
10,721, level confidence: 82%.