Rui Soares v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 28 Feb 2019)
Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-9.
Starting level for
Rui Soares:
24,823, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,502, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Rui Soares won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played
106% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rui Soares actually played at a level of
29,934 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
14,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to +17% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes +4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hampshire Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 79%, Stuart Macgregor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 66%, Stuart Macgregor: 77%.
Final level for Rui Soares:
25,810, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
16,953, level confidence: 77%.