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Rui Soares v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-9.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 24,823, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,502, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Rui Soares won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 106% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rui Soares actually played at a level of 29,934 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 14,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to +17% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes +4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hampshire Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 79%, Stuart Macgregor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 66%, Stuart Macgregor: 77%.

Final level for Rui Soares: 25,810, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,953, level confidence: 77%.