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Dan Haggarty v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 2-11,5-11,0-11.

Starting level for Dan Haggarty: 5,771, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,953, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 194% better than Dan Haggarty.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 371% better than Dan Haggarty in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 21,476 and Dan Haggarty at a level of 4,556. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +13% and Dan Haggarty changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +3.5% and for Dan Haggarty becomes -4.9%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Dan Haggarty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +2% and for Dan Haggarty is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 87%, Dan Haggarty: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 68%, Dan Haggarty: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Haggarty: 5,647, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,264, level confidence: 68%.