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Adam Taylor v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 06 Mar 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 5-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Adam Taylor: 11,833, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,686, level confidence: 68%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Adam Taylor.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 83% better than Adam Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 19,588 and Adam Taylor at a level of 10,684. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +8.7% and Adam Taylor changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.5% and for Adam Taylor becomes -2.4%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +1.4% and for Adam Taylor is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 83%, Adam Taylor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 75%, Adam Taylor: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Taylor: 11,648, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,910, level confidence: 75%.