Robert Downer v Patrick Rooney (Wed 06 Mar 2019)
Match won by Robert Downer. Result: 8-11,5-11,11-8,14-12,11-4.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
22,209, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,185, level confidence: 70%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Robert Downer.
Robert Downer won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Downer played
9% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Downer actually played at a level of
25,669 and Patrick Rooney at a level of
23,521. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Downer changes to +14% and Patrick Rooney changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Downer becomes +3.5% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -3.2%.
Given Robert Downer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Robert Downer is +1.8% and for Patrick Rooney is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Downer: 82%, Patrick Rooney: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Downer: 71%, Patrick Rooney: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robert Downer:
22,602, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
26,746, level confidence: 72%.