SquashLevels calculations
Lyell Fuller v Nicholas Kyme (Tue 05 Mar 2019)
Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
21,212, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Nicholas Kyme:
9,077, level confidence: 17%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing
134% better than Nicholas Kyme.
Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played
106% better than Nicholas Kyme in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,733 and 21,212 without affecting his level.
In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 18,721 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nicholas Kyme is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 81%, Nicholas Kyme: 41%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 76%, Nicholas Kyme: 39%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
21,212, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Nicholas Kyme:
9,077, level confidence: 39%.