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Lyell Fuller v Andrew Schnell (Wed 06 Mar 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 21,244, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Schnell: 25,893, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Andrew Schnell to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Lyell Fuller.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 120% better than Andrew Schnell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 34,787 and Andrew Schnell at a level of 15,812. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 64% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +53% and Andrew Schnell changes to -56%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +10.3% and for Andrew Schnell becomes -10.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bermuda Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyell Fuller is limited to +6.4% and Andrew Schnell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 87%, Andrew Schnell: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 53%, Andrew Schnell: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 22,596, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Andrew Schnell: 24,657, level confidence: 52%.