Miles Jenkins v Chris Hall (Mon 04 Mar 2019)
Retired pro result:
Chris Hall[364798]. Match type: Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19. Last pro match: 2016-06-06 19:30:00. Now: 2019-03-04 19:30:00. Days since: 1001
Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 6-11,13-11,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Miles Jenkins:
18,743, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Hall:
21,343, level confidence: 66%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Miles Jenkins.
Miles Jenkins won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played
21% better than Chris Hall in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of
22,031 and Chris Hall at a level of
18,158. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to +13% and Chris Hall changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes +3.5% and for Chris Hall becomes -6.3%.
Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.
Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Miles Jenkins is +1.9% and for Chris Hall is -3.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 90%, Chris Hall: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 76%, Chris Hall: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Miles Jenkins:
19,070, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Chris Hall:
20,646, level confidence: 69%.