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Chris Hall v Robbie Fortune (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 11-5,11-1,11-6.

Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,646, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Robbie Fortune: 4,282, level confidence: 68%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 382% better than Robbie Fortune.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 175% better than Robbie Fortune in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Hall was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,298 and 20,646 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Hall played at level 11,976 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Hall would normally have been playing at level 12,180 (based on typical behaviour), Robbie Fortune played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to 0% and Robbie Fortune changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes 0% and for Robbie Fortune becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is 0% and for Robbie Fortune is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 82%, Robbie Fortune: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 62%, Robbie Fortune: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hall: 20,615, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Robbie Fortune: 4,290, level confidence: 62%.