SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Harry Falconer v Julian Tomlinson (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 12-10,11-5,9-11,9-11,9-11.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,105, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,405, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Julian Tomlinson won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 7% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Tomlinson actually played at a level of 17,235 and Harry Falconer at a level of 16,183. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to +10.7% and Harry Falconer changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes +3.1% and for Harry Falconer becomes -3%.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is +1.8% and for Harry Falconer is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 86%, Harry Falconer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 77%, Harry Falconer: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 17,786, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,652, level confidence: 77%.