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Oliver Pett v Ted Jeal (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 15-13,9-11,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 19,945, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Ted Jeal: 11,277, level confidence: 64%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Ted Jeal.

Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 20% better than Ted Jeal in this match.

As Oliver Pett has played below his allowed range at 14,823, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Pett would normally have been playing at level 18,214 (based on typical behaviour), Ted Jeal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to -7.2% and Ted Jeal changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes -2.2% and for Ted Jeal becomes +3.4%.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ted Jeal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is -1.2% and for Ted Jeal is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 78%, Ted Jeal: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 65%, Ted Jeal: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 19,684, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ted Jeal: 11,497, level confidence: 66%.