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Patrick Rooney v Oliver Hudson (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-7,11-5,7-11,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,486, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Hudson: 10,666, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 148% better than Oliver Hudson.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 33% better than Oliver Hudson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,741 and 26,486 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 15,390, his level reduction is 8.8% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 21,601 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Hudson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -5.5% and Oliver Hudson changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.7% and for Oliver Hudson becomes +3.7%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Oliver Hudson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.9% and for Oliver Hudson is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 84%, Oliver Hudson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 61%, Oliver Hudson: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,219, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Oliver Hudson: 10,897, level confidence: 66%.