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Stuart Macgregor v Dom Hamilton (Wed 13 Mar 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,081, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dom Hamilton: 9,749, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Dom Hamilton.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 106% better than Dom Hamilton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 19,067 and Dom Hamilton at a level of 9,245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +4% and Dom Hamilton changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +1.5% and for Dom Hamilton becomes -1.8%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.

Given Dom Hamilton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +0.8% and for Dom Hamilton is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 85%, Dom Hamilton: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 81%, Dom Hamilton: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,207, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Dom Hamilton: 9,626, level confidence: 81%.