Anthony Rogal v Oliver Pett (Thu 14 Mar 2019)
Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 6-11,11-8,7-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
14,286, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Oliver Pett:
19,549, level confidence: 63%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Anthony Rogal.
Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played
30% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
In this case, Oliver Pett played at level 18,786 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Oliver Pett would normally have been playing at level 18,944 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Rogal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to 0% and Anthony Rogal changes to +0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes 0% and for Anthony Rogal becomes 0%.
Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is 0% and for Anthony Rogal is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 79%, Anthony Rogal: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 77%, Anthony Rogal: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
14,287, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Oliver Pett:
19,520, level confidence: 77%.