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Peter Creed v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-6,12-14,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,546, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 17,388, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Elliott Morris Devred.

Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 23% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.

As Peter Creed has played below his allowed range at 22,614, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 25,897 (based on typical behaviour), Elliott Morris Devred played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to -4.3% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes -1.5% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +2.4%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is -0.7% and for Elliott Morris Devred is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 89%, Elliott Morris Devred: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 79%, Elliott Morris Devred: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,303, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 17,596, level confidence: 75%.