Harry Falconer v Mike Harris (Sat 16 Mar 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
18,716, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
20,201, level confidence: 68%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Harry Falconer.
Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
24% better than Mike Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
21,670 and Mike Harris at a level of
17,447. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +15% and Mike Harris changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +3.8% and for Mike Harris becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Yorks PSA York Classic' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +3.4% and for Mike Harris is -3.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 81%, Mike Harris: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 70%, Mike Harris: 71%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,360, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
19,559, level confidence: 71%.