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Jim Fletchman-Brown v Andy Whipp (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 7-11,8-11,3-11.

Starting level for Jim Fletchman-Brown: 6,086, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 17,078, level confidence: 62%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 181% better than Jim Fletchman-Brown.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 83% better than Jim Fletchman-Brown in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Whipp was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,699 and 17,078 without affecting his level.

In this case, Andy Whipp played at level 12,173 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 13,281 (based on typical behaviour), Jim Fletchman-Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to 0% and Jim Fletchman-Brown changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes 0% and for Jim Fletchman-Brown becomes +1.9%.

Given Jim Fletchman-Brown's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is 0% and for Jim Fletchman-Brown is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 79%, Jim Fletchman-Brown: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 64%, Jim Fletchman-Brown: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Fletchman-Brown: 6,159, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 17,052, level confidence: 64%.