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Isaac Rawcliffe v Peter Creed (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 7-11,4-11,6-11.

Starting level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 9,605, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,314, level confidence: 93%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Isaac Rawcliffe.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 94% better than Isaac Rawcliffe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,320 and 27,314 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 19,846 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 21,124 (based on typical behaviour), Isaac Rawcliffe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Isaac Rawcliffe changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for Isaac Rawcliffe becomes +1.7%.

Given Isaac Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is 0% and for Isaac Rawcliffe is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 97%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 80%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 9,696, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,273, level confidence: 80%.