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Lewis Poole v James Peach (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 9-11,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Lewis Poole: 10,849, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,186, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Lewis Poole.

James Peach won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 36% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

In this case, James Peach played at level 15,058 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 15,423 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Poole played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Lewis Poole changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Lewis Poole becomes +1%.

Given Lewis Poole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Lewis Poole is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 89%, Lewis Poole: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 85%, Lewis Poole: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Poole: 10,899, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Peach: 16,162, level confidence: 85%.