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Harry Falconer v Michael Babra (Wed 20 Mar 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,547, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Babra: 11,800, level confidence: 55%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Michael Babra.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 45% better than Michael Babra in this match.

In this case, Harry Falconer played at level 17,637 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 18,175 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Babra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to 0% and Michael Babra changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes 0% and for Michael Babra becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Cronimet Swe SkellefteƄ Jgp4 Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 90%, Michael Babra: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 84%, Michael Babra: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,518, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Michael Babra: 11,916, level confidence: 69%.