Stuart Macgregor v Jakub Solnicky (Thu 21 Mar 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,189, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jakub Solnicky:
18,290, level confidence: 69%.
Jakub Solnicky to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
52% better than Jakub Solnicky in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
22,461 and Jakub Solnicky at a level of
14,811. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +21% and Jakub Solnicky changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +4.9% and for Jakub Solnicky becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Cronimet Swe SkellefteƄ Jgp4 Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 88%, Jakub Solnicky: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 71%, Jakub Solnicky: 67%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
19,057, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Jakub Solnicky:
17,783, level confidence: 67%.