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Reiko Peter v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 22 Mar 2019)

Match won by Reiko Peter. Result: 11-5,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Reiko Peter: 26,277, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,066, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Reiko Peter to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Reiko Peter won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reiko Peter played 58% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Reiko Peter actually played at a level of 28,112 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 17,822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reiko Peter changes to +4.7% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reiko Peter becomes +1.6% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Cronimet Swe SkellefteƄ Jgp4 Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reiko Peter: 94%, Stuart Macgregor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reiko Peter: 88%, Stuart Macgregor: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Reiko Peter: 26,652, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,674, level confidence: 79%.