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Patrick Rooney v Olivia Howell (Tue 26 Mar 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,938, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Olivia Howell: 6,792, level confidence: 54%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 297% better than Olivia Howell.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 65% better than Olivia Howell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,551 and 26,938 without affecting his level.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 14,108 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 17,760 (based on typical behaviour), Olivia Howell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Olivia Howell changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Olivia Howell becomes +4%.

Given Olivia Howell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is 0% and for Olivia Howell is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 84%, Olivia Howell: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 54%, Olivia Howell: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,898, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Olivia Howell: 6,974, level confidence: 47%.