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Peter Creed v Jayden Gough (Sat 16 Mar 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,608, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jayden Gough: 10,858, level confidence: 60%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Jayden Gough.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 65% better than Jayden Gough in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,043 and 27,608 without affecting his level.

As Peter Creed has played below his allowed range at 17,979, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 22,319 (based on typical behaviour), Jayden Gough played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Jayden Gough changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes -0.1% and for Jayden Gough becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal Welsh National Closed Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 94%, Jayden Gough: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 76%, Jayden Gough: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,550, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Jayden Gough: 11,107, level confidence: 62%.