SquashLevels calculations
Peter Creed v Owain Taylor (Sat 16 Mar 2019)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-8,11-4,8-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
27,282, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
20,402, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Owain Taylor.
Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
32% better than Owain Taylor in this match.
In this case, Peter Creed played at level 26,945 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Owain Taylor is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 87%, Owain Taylor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 86%, Owain Taylor: 92%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Peter Creed:
27,286, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
20,477, level confidence: 92%.