SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Adrian Waller v Mike Harris (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 43,935, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,460, level confidence: 64%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Mike Harris.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 42% better than Mike Harris in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,239 and 43,935 without affecting his level.

As Adrian Waller has played below his allowed range at 29,409, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 37,047 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to -4.1% and Mike Harris changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes -1.3% and for Mike Harris becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 62%, Mike Harris: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 49%, Mike Harris: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 43,352, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 19,842, level confidence: 63%.