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Jordan Warne v Chris Hall (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 6-11,7-11,2-11.

Starting level for Jordan Warne: 11,261, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,078, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Jordan Warne.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 120% better than Jordan Warne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 22,303 and Jordan Warne at a level of 10,138. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +7.5% and Jordan Warne changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +2.2% and for Jordan Warne becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 87%, Jordan Warne: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 78%, Jordan Warne: 75%.

Final level for Jordan Warne: 10,965, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 20,527, level confidence: 78%.