Jordan Warne v Chris Hall (Sat 06 Apr 2019)
Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 6-11,7-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Jordan Warne:
11,261, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Chris Hall:
20,078, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing
78% better than Jordan Warne.
Chris Hall won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played
120% better than Jordan Warne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of
22,303 and Jordan Warne at a level of
10,138. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +7.5% and Jordan Warne changes to -8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +2.2% and for Jordan Warne becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 87%, Jordan Warne: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 78%, Jordan Warne: 75%.
Final level for Jordan Warne:
10,965, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Chris Hall:
20,527, level confidence: 78%.