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Stuart Macgregor v Oliver Pett (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 11-4,4-11,4-11,4-11.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,598, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Pett: 20,175, level confidence: 64%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 37% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of 22,659 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 16,559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +12% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +3.1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 80%, Stuart Macgregor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 71%, Stuart Macgregor: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,226, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Oliver Pett: 20,802, level confidence: 71%.