Joshua Masters v Oliver Pett (Sat 06 Apr 2019)
Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-13,9-11.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
32,204, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Oliver Pett:
20,691, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing
56% better than Oliver Pett.
Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played
22% better than Joshua Masters in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of
28,507 and Joshua Masters at a level of
23,374. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +29% and Joshua Masters changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +6.4% and for Joshua Masters becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 84%, Joshua Masters: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 61%, Joshua Masters: 66%.
A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
31,516, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Oliver Pett:
22,014, level confidence: 61%.