Julian Tomlinson v Stuart Macgregor (Sat 06 Apr 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 5-11,3-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
14,668, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,066, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
230% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
29,572 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of
8,961. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 64% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +56% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -53%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +11.1% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -11%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stuart Macgregor is limited to +6.7% and Julian Tomlinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 86%, Julian Tomlinson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 53%, Julian Tomlinson: 54%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
13,970, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
19,276, level confidence: 53%.